1 | |
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2 | /*! |
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3 | \file |
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4 | \brief Robust |
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5 | \author Vasek Smidl |
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6 | |
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7 | */ |
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8 | |
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9 | #include "estim/arx.h" |
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10 | #include "robustlib.h" |
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11 | #include <vector> |
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12 | #include <iostream> |
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13 | #include <fstream> |
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14 | #include <itpp/itsignal.h> |
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15 | #include <windows.h> |
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16 | #include "DDEClient.h" |
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17 | #include <conio.h> |
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18 | |
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19 | |
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20 | using namespace itpp; |
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21 | using namespace bdm; |
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22 | |
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23 | const int emlig_size = 2; |
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24 | const int utility_constant = 5; |
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25 | |
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26 | |
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27 | int main ( int argc, char* argv[] ) { |
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28 | |
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29 | itpp::Laplace_RNG LapRNG = Laplace_RNG(); |
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30 | |
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31 | WORD wConvNo; |
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32 | char szType[] = "request"; |
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33 | char szData[21]; |
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34 | char szItem[] = "EURUSD"; |
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35 | char szService[] = "MT4"; |
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36 | char szTopic[] = "BID"; |
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37 | char szFormat[] = "CF_TEXT"; |
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38 | DWORD dwTimeout = 0; |
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39 | //char szAccess[] = "string"; |
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40 | |
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41 | if(!DCInit()) |
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42 | { |
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43 | cout << "DDE doesn't work." << endl; |
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44 | } |
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45 | else |
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46 | { |
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47 | // The following if-block shows a complete conversation with a |
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48 | // single transaction. You therefore do not need to free any memory |
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49 | // explicitly. |
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50 | |
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51 | // connect to server |
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52 | if (!DCConnect(&wConvNo,szService, szTopic)) |
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53 | { |
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54 | cout << "Couldn't connect DDE." << endl; |
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55 | } |
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56 | else |
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57 | { |
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58 | // do synchronous request transaction, wait max. 1000 ms, |
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59 | // return data as string |
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60 | if(!DCRequestString(wConvNo,szItem,100000)) |
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61 | { |
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62 | cout << "No data available." << endl; |
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63 | } |
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64 | else |
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65 | { |
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66 | if(!DCAsynchTransactionCompleted(wConvNo,DCDA[wConvNo]->dwTransID,true)) |
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67 | { |
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68 | cout << "Asynchronous transaction error." << endl; |
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69 | } |
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70 | else |
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71 | { |
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72 | // output data to console if transaction complete |
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73 | // DCDA[wConvNo]->pszData is the pointer to the data string |
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74 | cprintf(DCDA[wConvNo]->pszData); |
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75 | DCFreeDdeMem(wConvNo); |
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76 | } |
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77 | } |
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78 | // end conversation |
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79 | if(!DCDisconnect(wConvNo)) |
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80 | { |
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81 | cout << "Couldn't disconnect DDE." << endl; |
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82 | } |
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83 | } |
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84 | } |
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85 | |
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86 | /* |
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87 | // EXPERIMENT: 100 AR model generated time series of length of 30 from y_t=0.95*y_(t-1)+0.05*y_(t-2)+0.2*e_t, |
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88 | // where e_t is normally, student(4) and cauchy distributed are tested using robust AR model, to obtain the |
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89 | // variance of location parameter estimators and compare it to the classical setup. |
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90 | vector<vector<vector<string>>> string_lists; |
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91 | string_lists.push_back(vector<vector<string>>()); |
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92 | string_lists.push_back(vector<vector<string>>()); |
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93 | string_lists.push_back(vector<vector<string>>()); |
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94 | |
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95 | char* file_strings[3] = {"c:\\ar_normal.txt", "c:\\ar_student.txt", "c:\\ar_cauchy.txt"}; |
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96 | |
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97 | |
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98 | for(int i = 0;i<3;i++) |
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99 | { |
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100 | ifstream myfile(file_strings[i]); |
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101 | if (myfile.is_open()) |
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102 | { |
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103 | while ( myfile.good() ) |
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104 | { |
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105 | string line; |
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106 | getline(myfile,line); |
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107 | |
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108 | vector<string> parsed_line; |
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109 | while(line.find(',') != string::npos) |
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110 | { |
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111 | int loc = line.find(','); |
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112 | parsed_line.push_back(line.substr(0,loc)); |
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113 | line.erase(0,loc+1); |
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114 | } |
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115 | |
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116 | string_lists[i].push_back(parsed_line); |
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117 | } |
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118 | myfile.close(); |
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119 | } |
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120 | } |
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121 | |
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122 | for(int j = 0;j<string_lists.size();j++) |
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123 | { |
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124 | |
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125 | for(int i = 0;i<string_lists[j].size()-1;i++) |
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126 | { |
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127 | vector<vec> conditions; |
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128 | //emlig* emliga = new emlig(2); |
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129 | RARX* my_rarx = new RARX(2,30); |
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130 | |
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131 | for(int k = 1;k<string_lists[j][i].size();k++) |
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132 | { |
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133 | vec condition; |
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134 | //condition.ins(0,1); |
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135 | condition.ins(0,string_lists[j][i][k]); |
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136 | conditions.push_back(condition); |
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137 | |
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138 | //cout << "orig:" << condition << endl; |
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139 | |
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140 | if(conditions.size()>1) |
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141 | { |
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142 | conditions[k-2].ins(0,string_lists[j][i][k]); |
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143 | |
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144 | } |
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145 | |
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146 | if(conditions.size()>2) |
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147 | { |
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148 | conditions[k-3].ins(0,string_lists[j][i][k]); |
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149 | |
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150 | //cout << "modi:" << conditions[k-3] << endl; |
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151 | |
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152 | my_rarx->bayes(conditions[k-3]); |
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153 | |
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154 | |
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155 | //if(k>5) |
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156 | //{ |
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157 | // cout << "MaxLik coords:" << emliga->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates() << endl; |
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158 | //} |
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159 | |
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160 | } |
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161 | |
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162 | } |
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163 | |
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164 | //emliga->step_me(0); |
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165 | /* |
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166 | ofstream myfile; |
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167 | myfile.open("c:\\robust_ar1.txt",ios::app); |
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168 | myfile << my_rarx->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates()[0] << ";"; |
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169 | myfile.close(); |
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170 | |
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171 | myfile.open("c:\\robust_ar2.txt",ios::app); |
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172 | myfile << emliga->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates()[1] << ";"; |
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173 | myfile.close(); |
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174 | |
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175 | |
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176 | cout << "MaxLik coords:" << emliga->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates() << endl; |
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177 | cout << "Step: " << i << endl; |
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178 | } |
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179 | |
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180 | cout << "One experiment finished." << endl; |
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181 | |
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182 | ofstream myfile; |
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183 | myfile.open("c:\\robust_ar1.txt",ios::app); |
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184 | myfile << endl; |
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185 | myfile.close(); |
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186 | |
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187 | myfile.open("c:\\robust_ar2.txt",ios::app); |
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188 | myfile << endl; |
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189 | myfile.close(); |
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190 | }*/ |
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191 | |
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192 | |
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193 | // EXPERIMENT: A moving window estimation and prediction of RARX is tested on data generated from |
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194 | // y_t=0.95*y_(t-1)+0.05*y_(t-2)+0.2*e_t, where e_t is normally, student(4) and cauchy distributed. It |
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195 | // can be compared to the classical setup. |
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196 | |
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197 | |
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198 | vector<vector<string>> strings; |
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199 | |
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200 | char* file_strings[3] = {"c:\\dataADClosePercDiff","c:\\ar_student_single","c:\\ar_cauchy_single"}; |
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201 | |
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202 | for(int i = 0;i<3;i++) |
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203 | { |
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204 | char dfstring[80]; |
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205 | strcpy(dfstring,file_strings[i]); |
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206 | strcat(dfstring,".txt"); |
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207 | |
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208 | ifstream myfile(dfstring); |
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209 | if (myfile.is_open()) |
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210 | { |
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211 | string line; |
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212 | getline(myfile,line); |
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213 | |
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214 | vector<string> parsed_line; |
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215 | while(line.find(',') != string::npos) |
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216 | { |
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217 | int loc = line.find(','); |
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218 | parsed_line.push_back(line.substr(0,loc)); |
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219 | line.erase(0,loc+1); |
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220 | } |
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221 | |
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222 | strings.push_back(parsed_line); |
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223 | |
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224 | myfile.close(); |
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225 | } |
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226 | } |
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227 | |
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228 | |
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229 | |
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230 | for(int j = 0;j<strings.size();j++) |
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231 | { |
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232 | vector<vec> conditions; |
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233 | //emlig* emliga = new emlig(2); |
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234 | RARX* my_rarx = new RARX(2,10,false); |
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235 | |
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236 | |
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237 | mat V0 = 0.0001 * eye ( 3 ); |
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238 | ARX* my_arx = new ARX(0.85); |
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239 | my_arx->set_statistics ( 1, V0 ); //nu is default (set to have finite moments) |
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240 | my_arx->set_constant ( false ); |
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241 | my_arx->validate(); |
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242 | |
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243 | |
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244 | for(int k = 1;k<strings[j].size();k++) |
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245 | { |
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246 | vec condition; |
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247 | //condition.ins(0,1); |
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248 | condition.ins(0,strings[j][k]); |
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249 | conditions.push_back(condition); |
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250 | |
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251 | //cout << "orig:" << condition << endl; |
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252 | |
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253 | if(conditions.size()>1) |
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254 | { |
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255 | conditions[k-2].ins(0,strings[j][k]); |
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256 | |
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257 | } |
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258 | |
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259 | if(conditions.size()>2) |
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260 | { |
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261 | conditions[k-3].ins(0,strings[j][k]); |
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262 | |
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263 | // cout << "Condition:" << conditions[k-3] << endl; |
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264 | |
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265 | my_rarx->bayes(conditions[k-3]); |
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266 | //my_rarx->posterior->step_me(1); |
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267 | |
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268 | vec cond_vec; |
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269 | cond_vec.ins(0,conditions[k-3][0]); |
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270 | |
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271 | my_arx->bayes(cond_vec,conditions[k-3].right(2)); |
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272 | |
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273 | |
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274 | if(k>8) |
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275 | { |
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276 | //my_rarx->posterior->step_me(0); |
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277 | |
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278 | //mat samples = my_rarx->posterior->sample_mat(10); |
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279 | |
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280 | pair<vec,mat> imp_samples = my_rarx->posterior->importance_sample(1000); |
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281 | |
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282 | //cout << imp_samples.first << endl; |
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283 | |
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284 | vec sample_prediction; |
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285 | vec averaged_params = zeros(imp_samples.second.rows()); |
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286 | for(int t = 0;t<imp_samples.first.size();t++) |
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287 | { |
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288 | vec lap_sample = conditions[k-3].left(2); |
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289 | //lap_sample.ins(lap_sample.size(),1.0); |
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290 | |
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291 | lap_sample.ins(0,LapRNG()); |
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292 | |
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293 | sample_prediction.ins(0,lap_sample*imp_samples.second.get_col(t)); |
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294 | |
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295 | averaged_params += imp_samples.first[t]*imp_samples.second.get_col(t); |
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296 | } |
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297 | |
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298 | averaged_params = averaged_params*(1/(imp_samples.first*ones(imp_samples.first.size()))); |
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299 | |
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300 | // cout << "Averaged estimated parameters: " << averaged_params << endl; |
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301 | |
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302 | vec sample_pow = sample_prediction; |
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303 | |
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304 | // cout << sample_prediction << endl; |
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305 | vec poly_coefs; |
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306 | double prediction; |
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307 | bool stop_iteration = false; |
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308 | int en = 1; |
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309 | do |
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310 | { |
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311 | double poly_coef = imp_samples.first*sample_pow/(imp_samples.first*ones(imp_samples.first.size())); |
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312 | |
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313 | if(en==1) |
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314 | { |
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315 | prediction = poly_coef; |
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316 | } |
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317 | |
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318 | poly_coef = poly_coef*en*fact(utility_constant-2+en)/fact(utility_constant-2); |
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319 | |
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320 | if(abs(poly_coef)>numeric_limits<double>::epsilon()) |
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321 | { |
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322 | sample_pow = elem_mult(sample_pow,sample_prediction); |
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323 | poly_coefs.ins(0,pow(-1.0,en+1)*poly_coef); |
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324 | } |
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325 | else |
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326 | { |
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327 | stop_iteration = true; |
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328 | } |
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329 | |
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330 | en++; |
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331 | |
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332 | if(en>20) |
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333 | { |
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334 | stop_iteration = true; |
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335 | } |
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336 | } |
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337 | while(!stop_iteration); |
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338 | |
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339 | /* |
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340 | ofstream myfile_coef; |
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341 | |
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342 | myfile_coef.open("c:\\coefs.txt",ios::app); |
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343 | |
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344 | for(int t = 0;t<poly_coefs.size();t++) |
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345 | { |
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346 | myfile_coef << poly_coefs[t] << ","; |
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347 | } |
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348 | |
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349 | myfile_coef << endl; |
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350 | myfile_coef.close(); |
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351 | */ |
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352 | |
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353 | //cout << "Coefficients: " << poly_coefs << endl; |
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354 | |
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355 | /* |
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356 | vec bas_coef = vec("1.0 2.0 -8.0"); |
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357 | cout << "Coefs: " << bas_coef << endl; |
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358 | cvec actions2 = roots(bas_coef); |
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359 | cout << "Roots: " << actions2 << endl; |
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360 | */ |
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361 | |
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362 | |
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363 | |
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364 | cvec actions = roots(poly_coefs); |
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365 | |
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366 | |
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367 | bool is_max = false; |
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368 | for(int t = 0;t<actions.size();t++) |
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369 | { |
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370 | if(actions[t].imag() == 0) |
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371 | { |
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372 | double second_derivative = 0; |
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373 | for(int q = 1;q<poly_coefs.size();q++) |
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374 | { |
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375 | second_derivative+=poly_coefs[q]*pow(actions[t].real(),q-1)*q; |
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376 | } |
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377 | |
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378 | if(second_derivative<0) |
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379 | { |
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380 | cout << "Action:" << actions[t].real() << endl; |
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381 | |
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382 | is_max = true; |
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383 | } |
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384 | } |
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385 | } |
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386 | |
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387 | if(!is_max) |
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388 | { |
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389 | cout << "No maximum." << endl; |
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390 | } |
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391 | |
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392 | // cout << "MaxLik coords:" << my_rarx->posterior->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates() << endl; |
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393 | |
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394 | /* |
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395 | double prediction = 0; |
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396 | for(int s = 1;s<samples.rows();s++) |
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397 | { |
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398 | |
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399 | double avg_parameter = imp_samples.get_row(s)*ones(samples.cols())/samples.cols(); |
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400 | |
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401 | prediction += avg_parameter*conditions[k-3][s-1]; |
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402 | |
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403 | |
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404 | |
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405 | /* |
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406 | ofstream myfile; |
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407 | char fstring[80]; |
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408 | strcpy(fstring,file_strings[j]); |
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409 | |
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410 | char es[5]; |
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411 | strcat(fstring,itoa(s,es,10)); |
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412 | |
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413 | strcat(fstring,"_res.txt"); |
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414 | |
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415 | |
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416 | myfile.open(fstring,ios::app); |
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417 | |
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418 | //myfile << my_rarx->posterior->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates()[0]; |
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419 | myfile << avg_parameter; |
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420 | |
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421 | if(k!=strings[j].size()-1) |
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422 | { |
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423 | myfile << ","; |
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424 | } |
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425 | else |
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426 | { |
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427 | myfile << endl; |
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428 | } |
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429 | myfile.close(); |
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430 | */ |
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431 | |
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432 | |
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433 | //} |
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434 | |
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435 | // cout << "Prediction: "<< prediction << endl; |
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436 | |
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437 | enorm<ldmat>* pred_mat = my_arx->epredictor(conditions[k-3].left(2)); |
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438 | double prediction2 = pred_mat->mean()[0]; |
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439 | |
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440 | |
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441 | ofstream myfile; |
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442 | char fstring[80]; |
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443 | char f2string[80]; |
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444 | strcpy(fstring,file_strings[j]); |
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445 | strcpy(f2string,fstring); |
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446 | |
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447 | strcat(fstring,"pred.txt"); |
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448 | strcat(f2string,"2pred.txt"); |
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449 | |
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450 | |
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451 | myfile.open(fstring,ios::app); |
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452 | |
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453 | // myfile << my_rarx->posterior->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates()[0]; |
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454 | myfile << prediction; |
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455 | |
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456 | if(k!=strings[j].size()-1) |
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457 | { |
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458 | myfile << ","; |
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459 | } |
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460 | else |
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461 | { |
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462 | myfile << endl; |
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463 | } |
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464 | myfile.close(); |
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465 | |
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466 | |
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467 | myfile.open(f2string,ios::app); |
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468 | myfile << prediction2; |
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469 | |
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470 | if(k!=strings[j].size()-1) |
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471 | { |
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472 | myfile << ","; |
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473 | } |
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474 | else |
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475 | { |
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476 | myfile << endl; |
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477 | } |
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478 | myfile.close(); |
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479 | //*/ |
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480 | |
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481 | } |
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482 | } |
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483 | |
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484 | //emliga->step_me(0); |
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485 | /* |
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486 | ofstream myfile; |
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487 | myfile.open("c:\\robust_ar1.txt",ios::app); |
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488 | myfile << my_rarx->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates()[0] << ";"; |
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489 | myfile.close(); |
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490 | |
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491 | myfile.open("c:\\robust_ar2.txt",ios::app); |
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492 | myfile << emliga->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates()[1] << ";"; |
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493 | myfile.close(); |
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494 | |
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495 | |
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496 | cout << "MaxLik coords:" << emliga->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates() << endl; |
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497 | cout << "Step: " << i << endl;*/ |
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498 | } |
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499 | |
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500 | |
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501 | } |
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502 | |
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503 | |
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504 | // EXPERIMENT: One step ahead price prediction. Comparison of classical and robust model using optimal trading |
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505 | // with maximization of logarithm of one-step ahead wealth. |
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506 | |
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507 | |
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508 | |
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509 | /* |
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510 | cout << "One experiment finished." << endl; |
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511 | |
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512 | ofstream myfile; |
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513 | myfile.open("c:\\robust_ar1.txt",ios::app); |
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514 | myfile << endl; |
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515 | myfile.close(); |
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516 | |
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517 | myfile.open("c:\\robust_ar2.txt",ios::app); |
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518 | myfile << endl; |
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519 | myfile.close();*/ |
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520 | |
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521 | |
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522 | //emlig* emlig1 = new emlig(emlig_size); |
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523 | |
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524 | //emlig1->step_me(0); |
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525 | //emlig* emlig2 = new emlig(emlig_size); |
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526 | |
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527 | /* |
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528 | emlig1->set_correction_factors(4); |
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529 | |
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530 | for(int j = 0;j<emlig1->correction_factors.size();j++) |
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531 | { |
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532 | for(set<my_ivec>::iterator vec_ref = emlig1->correction_factors[j].begin();vec_ref!=emlig1->correction_factors[j].end();vec_ref++) |
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533 | { |
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534 | cout << j << " "; |
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535 | |
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536 | for(int i=0;i<(*vec_ref).size();i++) |
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537 | { |
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538 | cout << (*vec_ref)[i]; |
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539 | } |
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540 | |
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541 | cout << endl; |
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542 | } |
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543 | }*/ |
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544 | |
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545 | /* |
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546 | vec condition5 = "1.0 1.0 1.01";//"-0.3 1.7 1.5"; |
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547 | |
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548 | emlig1->add_condition(condition5); |
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549 | //emlig1->step_me(0); |
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550 | |
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551 | |
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552 | vec condition1a = "-1.0 1.02 0.5"; |
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553 | //vec condition1b = "1.0 1.0 1.01"; |
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554 | emlig1->add_condition(condition1a); |
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555 | //emlig2->add_condition(condition1b); |
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556 | |
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557 | vec condition2a = "-0.3 1.7 1.5"; |
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558 | //vec condition2b = "-1.0 1.0 1.0"; |
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559 | emlig1->add_condition(condition2a); |
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560 | //emlig2->add_condition(condition2b); |
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561 | |
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562 | vec condition3a = "0.5 -1.01 1.0"; |
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563 | //vec condition3b = "0.5 -1.01 1.0"; |
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564 | |
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565 | emlig1->add_condition(condition3a); |
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566 | //emlig2->add_condition(condition3b); |
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567 | |
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568 | vec condition4a = "-0.5 -1.0 1.0"; |
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569 | //vec condition4b = "-0.5 -1.0 1.0"; |
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570 | |
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571 | emlig1->add_condition(condition4a); |
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572 | //cout << "************************************************" << endl; |
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573 | //emlig2->add_condition(condition4b); |
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574 | //cout << "************************************************" << endl; |
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575 | |
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576 | //cout << emlig1->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates(); |
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577 | |
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578 | //emlig1->remove_condition(condition3a); |
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579 | //emlig1->step_me(0); |
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580 | //emlig1->remove_condition(condition2a); |
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581 | //emlig1->remove_condition(condition1a); |
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582 | //emlig1->remove_condition(condition5); |
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583 | |
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584 | |
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585 | //emlig1->step_me(0); |
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586 | //emlig2->step_me(0); |
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587 | |
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588 | |
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589 | // DA SE POUZIT PRO VYPIS DO SOUBORU |
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590 | // emlig1->step_me(0); |
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591 | |
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592 | //emlig1->remove_condition(condition1); |
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593 | |
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594 | |
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595 | |
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596 | |
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597 | |
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598 | /* |
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599 | for(int i = 0;i<100;i++) |
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600 | { |
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601 | cout << endl << "Step:" << i << endl; |
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602 | |
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603 | double condition[emlig_size+1]; |
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604 | |
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605 | for(int k = 0;k<=emlig_size;k++) |
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606 | { |
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607 | condition[k] = (rand()-RAND_MAX/2)/1000.0; |
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608 | } |
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609 | |
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610 | |
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611 | vec* condition_vec = new vec(condition,emlig_size+1); |
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612 | emlig1->add_condition(*condition_vec); |
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613 | |
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614 | /* |
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615 | for(polyhedron* toprow_ref = emlig1->statistic.rows[emlig_size]; toprow_ref != emlig1->statistic.end_poly; toprow_ref = toprow_ref->next_poly) |
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616 | { |
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617 | cout << ((toprow*)toprow_ref)->probability << endl; |
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618 | } |
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619 | */ |
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620 | /* |
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621 | cout << emlig1->statistic_rowsize(emlig_size) << endl << endl; |
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622 | |
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623 | /* |
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624 | if(i-emlig1->number_of_parameters >= 0) |
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625 | { |
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626 | pause(30); |
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627 | } |
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628 | */ |
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629 | |
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630 | // emlig1->step_me(i); |
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631 | |
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632 | /* |
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633 | vector<int> sizevector; |
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634 | for(int s = 0;s<=emlig1->number_of_parameters;s++) |
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635 | { |
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636 | sizevector.push_back(emlig1->statistic_rowsize(s)); |
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637 | } |
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638 | */ |
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639 | //} |
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640 | |
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641 | |
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642 | |
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643 | |
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644 | /* |
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645 | emlig1->step_me(1); |
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646 | |
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647 | vec condition = "2.0 0.0 1.0"; |
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648 | |
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649 | emlig1->add_condition(condition); |
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650 | |
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651 | vector<int> sizevector; |
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652 | for(int s = 0;s<=emlig1->number_of_parameters;s++) |
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653 | { |
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654 | sizevector.push_back(emlig1->statistic_rowsize(s)); |
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655 | } |
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656 | |
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657 | emlig1->step_me(2); |
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658 | |
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659 | condition = "2.0 1.0 0.0"; |
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660 | |
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661 | emlig1->add_condition(condition); |
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662 | |
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663 | sizevector.clear(); |
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664 | for(int s = 0;s<=emlig1->number_of_parameters;s++) |
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665 | { |
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666 | sizevector.push_back(emlig1->statistic_rowsize(s)); |
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667 | } |
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668 | */ |
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669 | |
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670 | return 0; |
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671 | } |
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672 | |
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673 | |
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