Changeset 1405 for applications

Timestamp:

11/11/11 21:27:50 (12 years ago)

Author:

sindj

Message:

 

Location:

applications/robust

Files:

• main.cpp (modified) (13 diffs)
• robustlib.h (modified) (6 diffs)

applications/robust/main.cpp

@@ -29 +29 @@
 const int max_model_order = 2;
 const double apriorno     = 0.01;
-const int max_window_size = 30;
+const int max_window_size = 40;
+
+/*
+HDDEDATA CALLBACK DdeCallback(
+        UINT uType,     // Transaction type.
+        UINT uFmt,      // Clipboard data format.
+        HCONV hconv,    // Handle to the conversation.
+        HSZ hsz1,       // Handle to a string.
+        HSZ hsz2,       // Handle to a string.
+        HDDEDATA hdata, // Handle to a global memory object.
+        DWORD dwData1,  // Transaction-specific data.
+        DWORD dwData2)  // Transaction-specific data.
+{
+        return 0;
+}
+
+void DDERequest(DWORD idInst, HCONV hConv, char* szItem)
+{
+        HSZ hszItem = DdeCreateStringHandle(idInst, szItem, 0);
+        HDDEDATA hData = DdeClientTransaction(NULL,0,hConv,hszItem,CF_TEXT, 
+                                                                        XTYP_ADVSTART,TIMEOUT_ASYNC , NULL); //TIMEOUT_ASYNC
+        if (hData==NULL)
+        {
+                printf("Request failed: %s\n", szItem);
+        }
+
+        if (hData==0)
+        {
+                printf("Request failed: %s\n", szItem);
+        }
+}
+
+DWORD WINAPI ThrdFunc( LPVOID n )
+{    
+    return 0;
+}
+*/
 
 class model
@@ -47 +83 @@
         vec  predictions;
         char name[80];
+
+        double previous_lognc;
         
         model(set<pair<int,int>> ar_components, //funkcie treidz model-konstruktor
@@ -54 +92 @@
                   int predicted_channel,
                   mat* data_matrix)
-        {
+        {               
                 this->ar_components.insert(ar_components.begin(),ar_components.end());
 
@@ -84 +122 @@
                 if(robust)
                 {
+                        previous_lognc = 0;
                         strcat(name,"R");
 
                         if(has_constant)
                         {
-                                my_rarx = new RARX(ar_components.size()+1,window_size,true,sqrt(2*apriorno),sqrt(2*apriorno),ar_components.size()+4);
+                                my_rarx = new RARX(ar_components.size()+1,window_size,true,sqrt(2*apriorno),sqrt(2*apriorno),ar_components.size()+3);
                                 my_arx  = NULL;
                         }
                 else
                         {
-                                my_rarx = new RARX(ar_components.size(),window_size,false,sqrt(2*apriorno),sqrt(2*apriorno),ar_components.size()+3);
+                                my_rarx = new RARX(ar_components.size(),window_size,false,sqrt(2*apriorno),sqrt(2*apriorno),ar_components.size()+2);
                                 my_arx  = NULL;
                         }
@@ -106 +145 @@
                         {                               
                                 V0  = apriorno * eye(ar_components.size()+2); //aj tu konst
-                                //V0(0,0) = 0;
-                                my_arx->set_constant(true);                             
+                                V0(0,0) = 0;
+                                my_arx->set_constant(true);
+                                my_arx->set_statistics(1, V0, V0.rows()+1); 
                         }
                         else
@@ -113 +153 @@
                                 
                                 V0  = apriorno * eye(ar_components.size()+1);//menit konstantu
+                                V0(0,0) = 0;
                                 //V0(0,1) = -0.01;
                                 //V0(1,0) = -0.01;
-                                my_arx->set_constant(false);                            
-                                
-                        }
-
-                        my_arx->set_statistics(1, V0, V0.rows()+2);                     
+                                my_arx->set_constant(false);
+                                my_arx->set_statistics(1, V0, V0.rows()+1); 
+                                
+                        }                                               
+                        
                         my_arx->set_parameters(window_size);
                         my_arx->validate();
 
+                        previous_lognc = my_arx->posterior().lognc();
+
+                        /*
                         vec mean = my_arx->posterior().mean();
                         cout << mean << endl;
-                }
-        }
-
-        void data_update(int time) //vlozime cas a ono vlozi do data_vector podmineky(conditions) a predikce, ktore pouzije do bayes
+                        */
+                }
+        }
+
+        void data_update(int time) 
         {
                 vec data_vector;
@@ -158 +203 @@
                 if(my_rarx!=NULL)
                 {
-                        pair<vec,mat> imp_samples = my_rarx->posterior->sample(sample_size,false);
+                        pair<vec,mat> imp_samples = my_rarx->posterior->sample(sample_size,true);
 
                         //cout << imp_samples.first << endl;                    
                         
                         vec sample_prediction;                  
-                        for(int t = 0;t<sample_size;t++)
+                        for(int t = 0;t<imp_samples.second.cols();t++)
                         {
                                 vec lap_sample = condition_vector;
@@ -208 +253 @@
                 set<set<pair<int,int>>> created_model_types;            
 
-                if(max_order == 1)
+                if(max_order == 1)//ukoncovacia vetva
                 {                       
-                        for(int channel = 0;channel<number_of_channels;channel++)
+                        for(int channel = 0;channel<number_of_channels;channel++)//pre AR 1 model vytvori kombinace kanalov v prvom kroku poyadu
                         {
                                 set<pair<int,int>> returned_type;
-                                returned_type.insert(pair<int,int>(channel,1));  
+                                returned_type.insert(pair<int,int>(channel,1));  //??
                                 created_model_types.insert(returned_type);
                         }
@@ -221 +266 @@
                 else
                 {
-                        created_model_types = possible_models_recurse(max_order-1,number_of_channels);
+                        created_model_types = possible_models_recurse(max_order-1,number_of_channels);//tu uz mame ulozene kombinace o jeden krok dozadu  //rekuryivne volanie
                         set<set<pair<int,int>>> returned_types;
                         
@@ -232 +277 @@
                                         {
                                                 set<pair<int,int>> returned_type;
-                                                pair<int,int> new_pair = pair<int,int>(channel,order);
-                                                if(find((*model_ref).begin(),(*model_ref).end(),new_pair)==(*model_ref).end()) 
+                                                pair<int,int> new_pair = pair<int,int>(channel,order);//??
+                                                if(find((*model_ref).begin(),(*model_ref).end(),new_pair)==(*model_ref).end()) //??
                                                 {
-                                                        returned_type.insert((*model_ref).begin(),(*model_ref).end()); 
-                                                        returned_type.insert(new_pair);
-                                                        
+                                                        returned_type.insert((*model_ref).begin(),(*model_ref).end()); //co vlozi na zaciatok retuned_type?
+                                                        returned_type.insert(new_pair);                                                 
 
                                                         returned_types.insert(returned_type);                                                   
@@ -257 +301 @@
 int main ( int argc, char* argv[] ) 
 {
+        
+        // EXPERIMENT: A moving window estimation and prediction of RARX is tested on data generated from 
+    // y_t=0.95*y_(t-1)+0.05*y_(t-2)+0.2*e_t, where e_t is normally, student(4) and cauchy distributed. It
+    // can be compared to the classical setup.
+        
+        itpp::Laplace_RNG LapRNG = Laplace_RNG();       
+
         vector<vector<string>> strings;
 
-        char* file_string =  "C:\\results\\normalM"; // "C:\\dataADClosePercDiff"; //  
+        char* file_string =  "C:\\CD2"; // "C:\\dataADClosePercDiff"; //  
 
         char dfstring[80];
@@ -274 +325 @@
                 {                       
                         vec data_vector;
-                        while(line.find(',') != string::npos) 
-                        {                               
+                        while(line.find(',') != string::npos) //zmenil som ciarku za medzeru
+                        {
+                                //line.erase(0,1); // toto som sem pridal
                                 int loc2 = line.find('\n');
                                 int loc  = line.find(',');
@@ -291 +343 @@
                 cout << "Can't open data file!" << endl;
         }
-
-        set<pair<int,int>> model_type;
-        model_type.insert(pair<int,int>(0,1));
-        model_type.insert(pair<int,int>(0,2));
-
+        
+        //konec nacitavania dat
+        set<set<pair<int,int>>> model_types = model::possible_models_recurse(max_model_order,data_matrix.rows()); //volanie funkce kde robi kombinace modelov
+                                                                                                //to priradime do model_types, data_matrix.row urcuje pocet kanalov dat
         vector<model*> models;
+        for(set<set<pair<int,int>>>::iterator model_type = model_types.begin();model_type!=model_types.end();model_type++)
+        {// prechadza rozne typy kanalov, a poctu regresorov
+                for(int window_size = max_window_size-1;window_size < max_window_size;window_size++)
+                {
+                        models.push_back(new model((*model_type),true,true,window_size,0,&data_matrix));   // to su len konstruktory, len inicializujeme rozne typy
+                        models.push_back(new model((*model_type),false,true,window_size,0,&data_matrix));
+                        models.push_back(new model((*model_type),true,false,window_size,0,&data_matrix));
+                        models.push_back(new model((*model_type),false,false,window_size,0,&data_matrix));              
+                }
+
+                //set<pair<int,int>> empty_list;
+                //models.push_back(new model(empty_list,false,true,100,0,&data_matrix));
+        }
+        
+        mat result_lognc;
+        // mat result_preds;
 
         ofstream myfilew;
-                
-
-        while(data_matrix.rows()!=0)
-        {
-                for(int i=0;i<models.size();i++)
-                {
-                        delete models[i];
-                }
-                
-                models.clear();
-                models.push_back(new model(model_type,true,false,max_window_size,0,&data_matrix));
-                models.push_back(new model(model_type,false,false,max_window_size,0,&data_matrix));
-
-                for(int time = max_model_order;time<max_window_size;time++) //time<data_matrix.cols() 
-                {               
-                        vec cur_res_lognc;
-                
-                        vector<string> nazvy;
-                        for(vector<model*>::iterator model_ref = models.begin();model_ref!=models.end();model_ref++)
-                        {
-                                (*model_ref)->data_update(time);
-
-                                cout << "Updated:" << time << endl;     
-
-                                if(time == max_window_size-1)
-                                {
-                                        char fstring[80];                                       
-                                        strcpy(fstring,file_string);
-                                        strcat(fstring,"ml");                                   
-                                        strcat(fstring,(*model_ref)->name);
-                                        strcat(fstring,".txt");
-
-                                        vec coords;
-                                        if((*model_ref)->my_arx!=NULL)
+        char fstring[80];                                       
+        strcpy(fstring,file_string);
+        //strcat(fstring,"lognc.txt");
+        strcat(fstring,"preds.txt");    
+
+        for(int time = max_model_order;time<data_matrix.cols();time++) //time<data_matrix.cols() 
+        {       
+                cout << "Steps: " << time << endl;
+                
+                /*
+                if(time==max_window_size)
+                {
+                        exit(1);
+                }*/
+                
+                //pocet stlpcov data_matrix je pocet casovych krokov
+                vec cur_res_lognc;
+                // vec preds;
+                vector<string> nazvy;
+                for(vector<model*>::iterator model_ref = models.begin();model_ref!=models.end();model_ref++)
+                {//posuvam s apo models, co je pole modelov urobene o cyklus vyssie. Teda som v case time a robim to tam pre vsetky typy modelov, kombinace regresorov
+                        (*model_ref)->data_update(time); //pozret sa preco je toto tu nutne
+
+                        //cout << "Updated." << endl;
+                        //if (time = max_model_order) nazvy.push_back(models.model_ref]);// ako by som mohol dostat nazov modelu?
+
+                        if((*model_ref)->my_rarx!=NULL) //vklada normalizacni faktor do cur_res_lognc
+                        {
+                                //cout << "Maxlik vertex:" << (*model_ref)->my_rarx->posterior->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates() << endl;
+                                cur_res_lognc.ins(cur_res_lognc.size(),(*model_ref)->my_rarx->posterior->_ll());                                
+                        }
+                        else
+                        {
+                                double cur_lognc = (*model_ref)->my_arx->posterior().lognc();
+                                double cur_ll = cur_lognc-(*model_ref)->previous_lognc;
+                                
+                                /*
+                                if(time<(*model_ref)->window_size)
+                                {
+                                        cur_ll-=1.83787706640935;
+                                }*/
+                                
+                                (*model_ref)->my_arx->_ll();
+
+                                cur_res_lognc.ins(cur_res_lognc.size(),cur_ll);
+                                
+                                (*model_ref)->previous_lognc = cur_lognc;                               
+                        }
+                        
+                        /*
+                        if(time == max_window_size-1)
+                        {
+                                //***********************
+                                int sample_size = 100000;
+                                //***********************
+                                
+                                pair<vec,mat> samples;
+                                if((*model_ref)->my_arx!=NULL)
+                                {
+                                        mat samp_mat = (*model_ref)->my_arx->posterior().sample_mat(sample_size);
+                                        samples = pair<vec,mat>(ones(samp_mat.cols()),samp_mat);
+                                }
+                                else
+                                {
+                                        samples = (*model_ref)->my_rarx->posterior->sample(sample_size,true);                                   
+                                }
+
+                                char fstring[80];                                       
+                                strcpy(fstring,file_string);
+                                strcat(fstring,(*model_ref)->name);
+                                strcat(fstring,".txt");
+                                
+                                //cout << samples.first << endl;
+                                
+                                myfilew.open(fstring,ios::app);
+                                
+                                
+                                //for(int i = 0;i<samples.first.size();i++)
+                                //{
+                                //      myfilew << samples.first.get(i) << ",";
+                                //}
+                                //myfilew << endl;
+                                
+
+                                for(int j = 0;j<samples.second.rows()+1;j++)
+                                {                       
+                                        for(int i = 0;i<samples.second.cols();i++)
                                         {
-                                                coords = (*model_ref)->my_arx->posterior().est_theta();
-                                        }
-                                        else
-                                        {
-                                                coords = (*model_ref)->my_rarx->posterior->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates();                                           
-                                        }
-
-                                        myfilew.open(fstring,ios::app);
-
-                                        for(int i=0;i<coords.size();i++)
-                                        {
-                                                myfilew << coords.get(i) << ",";
-                                        }
+                                                if(j!=samples.second.rows())
+                                                {
+                                                        myfilew << samples.second.get(j,i) << ",";
+                                                }
+                                                
+                                                //else
+                                                //{
+                                                //      myfilew << "0,";
+                                                //}
+                                                
+                                        }                               
                                         myfilew << endl;
-
-                                        myfilew.close();                                
-                                }
-                        }
-                }
-
-                data_matrix.del_row(0);
-        }
-        
-
-
-        
+                                }
+
+                                cout << "*************************************" << endl;
+
+                                myfilew.close();                                
+                        }
+                        */              
+
+                         // PREDICTIONS
+                        pair<vec,vec> predictions = (*model_ref)->predict(3000,time,&LapRNG);
+
+                        /*
+                        cout << predictions.first << endl << endl << predictions.second << endl << "*************************************" ;
+                        pause(5);
+                        */              
+
+                        double avg_prediction = (predictions.first*predictions.second)/(predictions.first*ones(predictions.first.size()));
+
+                        (*model_ref)->predictions.ins((*model_ref)->predictions.size(),avg_prediction);
+                                        
+                        myfilew.open(fstring,ios::app);
+                        myfilew << avg_prediction << ","; 
+                        myfilew.close();
+                        
+
+                        //preds.ins(0,data_matrix.get(0,time+1));
+                }
+
+                
+                // REAL PRICE
+                myfilew.open(fstring,ios::app);
+                myfilew << data_matrix.get(0,time+1) << endl;
+                myfilew.close();
+                
+
+                result_lognc.ins_col(result_lognc.cols(),cur_res_lognc);
+                //result_preds.ins_col(result_preds.cols(),preds);
+
+                // cout << "Updated." << endl;  
+                                                        
+                /*
+                myfilew.open(fstring,ios::app);
+                
+                // myfile << my_rarx->posterior->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates()[0];
+                
+                if(time == max_model_order)
+                { 
+                        for(int i = 0;i<cur_res_lognc.size();i++)
+                        {
+                                for(set<pair<int,int>>::iterator ar_ref = models[i]->ar_components.begin();ar_ref != models[i]->ar_components.end();ar_ref++)
+                                {
+                                        myfilew << (*ar_ref).second << (*ar_ref).first;                                                 
+                                }
+
+                                myfilew << ".";
+
+                                if(models[i]->my_arx == NULL)
+                                {
+                                        myfilew << "1";
+                                }
+                                else
+                                {
+                                        myfilew << "0";
+                                }
+                                        
+                                if(models[i]->has_constant)
+                                {
+                                        myfilew << "1";
+                                }
+                                else
+                                {
+                                        myfilew << "0";
+                                }
+
+                                myfilew << ",";
+                        }
+
+                        myfilew << endl;
+                }
+                
+                
+                for(int i = 0;i<cur_res_lognc.size();i++)
+                {
+                   myfilew << cur_res_lognc[i] << ' ';//zmenil som ciarku ze medzeru
+                }
+
+                myfilew << endl;                
+                myfilew.close();        
+                */
+}
+
+        // EXPERIMENT: One step ahead price prediction. Comparison of classical and robust model using optimal trading
+    //             with maximization of logarithm of one-step ahead wealth.
+
+        
+                
+                /*
+                cout << "One experiment finished." << endl;
+
+                ofstream myfile;
+                myfile.open("c:\\robust_ar1.txt",ios::app);
+                myfile << endl;
+                myfile.close();
+
+                myfile.open("c:\\robust_ar2.txt",ios::app);
+                myfile << endl;
+                myfile.close();*/
+        
+
+        //emlig* emlig1 = new emlig(emlig_size);
+
+        //emlig1->step_me(0);
+        //emlig* emlig2 = new emlig(emlig_size);
+        
+        /*
+        emlig1->set_correction_factors(4);
+
+        for(int j = 0;j<emlig1->correction_factors.size();j++)
+        {
+                for(set<my_ivec>::iterator vec_ref = emlig1->correction_factors[j].begin();vec_ref!=emlig1->correction_factors[j].end();vec_ref++)
+                {
+                        cout << j << "    ";
+                        
+                        for(int i=0;i<(*vec_ref).size();i++)
+                        {
+                                cout << (*vec_ref)[i];
+                        }
+
+                        cout << endl;
+                }
+        }*/
+        
+        /*
+    vec condition5 = "1.0 1.0 1.01";//"-0.3 1.7 1.5";
+
+        emlig1->add_condition(condition5);
+        //emlig1->step_me(0);
+
+
+        vec condition1a = "-1.0 1.02 0.5";
+        //vec condition1b = "1.0 1.0 1.01";
+        emlig1->add_condition(condition1a);
+        //emlig2->add_condition(condition1b);
+
+        vec condition2a = "-0.3 1.7 1.5";
+        //vec condition2b = "-1.0 1.0 1.0";
+        emlig1->add_condition(condition2a);
+        //emlig2->add_condition(condition2b);
+
+        vec condition3a = "0.5 -1.01 1.0";
+        //vec condition3b = "0.5 -1.01 1.0";
+
+        emlig1->add_condition(condition3a);
+        //emlig2->add_condition(condition3b);   
+
+        vec condition4a = "-0.5 -1.0 1.0";
+        //vec condition4b = "-0.5 -1.0 1.0";    
+
+        emlig1->add_condition(condition4a);
+        //cout << "************************************************" << endl;
+        //emlig2->add_condition(condition4b);
+        //cout << "************************************************" << endl;
+        
+        //cout << emlig1->minimal_vertex->get_coordinates();
+        
+        //emlig1->remove_condition(condition3a);
+        //emlig1->step_me(0);
+        //emlig1->remove_condition(condition2a);
+        //emlig1->remove_condition(condition1a);
+        //emlig1->remove_condition(condition5);
+        
+
+        //emlig1->step_me(0);
+        //emlig2->step_me(0);
+        
+
+        // DA SE POUZIT PRO VYPIS DO SOUBORU
+        // emlig1->step_me(0);
+
+        //emlig1->remove_condition(condition1);
+        
+        
+
+        
+        
+        /*
+        for(int i = 0;i<100;i++)
+        {
+                cout << endl << "Step:" << i << endl;           
+
+                double condition[emlig_size+1];         
+
+                for(int k = 0;k<=emlig_size;k++)
+                {
+                        condition[k] = (rand()-RAND_MAX/2)/1000.0;              
+                }
+                        
+
+                vec* condition_vec = new vec(condition,emlig_size+1);
+                emlig1->add_condition(*condition_vec);
+
+                /*
+                for(polyhedron* toprow_ref = emlig1->statistic.rows[emlig_size]; toprow_ref != emlig1->statistic.end_poly; toprow_ref = toprow_ref->next_poly)
+                {
+                        cout << ((toprow*)toprow_ref)->probability << endl;
+                }
+                */
+                /*
+                cout << emlig1->statistic_rowsize(emlig_size) << endl << endl;
+        
+                /*
+                if(i-emlig1->number_of_parameters >= 0)
+                {
+                        pause(30);
+                }
+                */
+
+                // emlig1->step_me(i);
+                
+                /*
+                vector<int> sizevector;
+                for(int s = 0;s<=emlig1->number_of_parameters;s++)
+                {
+                        sizevector.push_back(emlig1->statistic_rowsize(s));
+                }
+                */
+        //}
+    
+
+
+        
+        /*
+        emlig1->step_me(1);
+
+        vec condition = "2.0 0.0 1.0";  
+
+        emlig1->add_condition(condition);
+
+        vector<int> sizevector;
+        for(int s = 0;s<=emlig1->number_of_parameters;s++)
+        {
+                sizevector.push_back(emlig1->statistic_rowsize(s));
+        }
+
+        emlig1->step_me(2);
+
+        condition = "2.0 1.0 0.0";
+
+        emlig1->add_condition(condition);
+
+        sizevector.clear();
+        for(int s = 0;s<=emlig1->number_of_parameters;s++)
+        {
+                sizevector.push_back(emlig1->statistic_rowsize(s));
+        }
+        */
 
         return 0;

applications/robust/robustlib.h

@@ -1658 +1658 @@
                                                 // **************************************************************************
 
+                                                if(current_negative->get_state(SPLIT)==0)
+                                                {
+                                                        for_splitting[k].remove(current_negative);
+                                                }                                               
+                                                
                                                 if(!current_positive->totally_neutral)
                                                 {
@@ -1687 +1692 @@
                                                                 // polyhedron to neutral
                                                                 current_positive->set_state(0,SPLIT);
-
-                                                                for_splitting[k].remove(current_negative);
+                                                                
                                                                 // and we add it to the list of polyhedrons to be SPLIT
                                                                 for_splitting[k].push_back(current_positive);                                                   
@@ -1696 +1700 @@
                                                         // If the MERGEd polyhedron is to be split..
                                                         if(current_positive->get_state(SPLIT)==0)
-                                                        {
+                                                        {                                                               
                                                                 // We need to fill the lists related to split with correct values, adding the SPLIT
                                                                 // positive, negative and neutral children to according list in the MERGE positive,
@@ -1759 +1763 @@
 
                                                 // We clear the grandparents list for further reuse.
-                                                current_positive->grandparents.clear();
-                                
-                                                // Triangulate the newly created polyhedron and compute its normalization integral if the
-                                                // polyhedron is a toprow.
-                                                normalization_factor += current_positive->triangulate(k==for_splitting.size()-1 && !will_be_split);
+                                                current_positive->grandparents.clear();                         
+                                                
                                                 
                                                 // Delete the negative polyhedron from the Hasse diagram (rewire all the connections)
@@ -1817 +1818 @@
                                                 {                                                       
                                                         vertices_to_be_reduced.insert((vertex*)(*merge_ref));                                                   
-                                                }                                                                                               
+                                                }       
+
+                                                // Triangulate the newly created polyhedron and compute its normalization integral if the
+                                                // polyhedron is a toprow.
+                                                normalization_factor += current_positive->triangulate(k==for_splitting.size()-1 && !will_be_split);
                                         }
                                 }                       
@@ -1926 +1931 @@
                                                 toprow* neutral_toprow = new toprow();
                                                 
-                                                // A toprow needs a valid condition
-                                                neutral_toprow->condition_sum   = ((toprow*)current_polyhedron)->condition_sum; // tohle tu bylo driv: zeros(number_of_parameters+1);
-                                                neutral_toprow->condition_order = ((toprow*)current_polyhedron)->condition_order+1;
+                                                if(k==number_of_parameters)
+                                                {
+                                                        // A toprow needs a valid condition
+                                                        neutral_toprow->condition_sum   = ((toprow*)current_polyhedron)->condition_sum; // tohle tu bylo driv: zeros(number_of_parameters+1);
+                                                        neutral_toprow->condition_order = ((toprow*)current_polyhedron)->condition_order+1;
+                                                }
 
                                                 // We assign it to the totally neutral child variable