Show
Ignore:
Timestamp:
05/18/10 16:54:25 (14 years ago)
Author:
smidl
Message:

doc

Files:
1 modified

Legend:

Unmodified
Added
Removed
  • library/doc/tutorial/02userguide_estim.dox

    r944 r948  
    22\page userguide_estim BDM Use - Estimation and Bayes Rule 
    33 
    4 Baysian theory is predominantly used in system identification, or estimation problems.  
    5 This section is concerned with recursive estimation, as implemneted in prepared scenario \c estimator. 
     4Bayesian theory is predominantly used in system identification, or estimation problems.  
     5This section is concerned with recursive estimation, as implemented in prepared scenario \c estimator. 
     6 
     7Table of contents: 
     8\ref ug2_theory  
     9\ref ug2_arx_basic  
     10\ref ug2_model_sel  
     11\ref ug2_bm_composition  
     12\ref ug_est_ext  
    613 
    714The function of the \c estimator is graphically illustrated: 
     
    3138 - <b> Bayes rule </b> as defined above, operation bdm::BM::bayes() which expects to get the current data record \c dt, \f$ d_t \f$ 
    3239 - <b> evidence </b> i.e. numerical value of \f$ f(d_t|d_1\ldots d_{t-1})\f$ as a typical side-product, since it is required in denominator of the above formula. 
    33    For some models, computation of this value may require extra effort, and can be swithed off. 
     40   For some models, computation of this value may require extra effort, and can be switched off. 
    3441 - <b> prediction </b> the object has enough information to create the one-step ahead predictor, i.e. \f[ f(d_{t+1}| d_1 \ldots d_{t}), \f]  
    3542         
    3643Implementation of these operations is heavily dependent on the specific class of prior pdf, or its approximations. We can identify only a few principal approaches to this problem. For example, analytical estimation which is possible within sufficient the Exponential Family, or estimation when both prior and posterior are approximated by empirical densities.  
    37 These approaches are first level of descendants of class \c BM, classes bdm::BMEF and bdm::PF, repectively. 
     44These approaches are first level of descendants of class \c BM, classes bdm::BMEF and bdm::PF, respectively. 
    3845 
    3946\section ug2_arx_basic Estimation of ARX models 
     
    5158This is the minimal configuration of an ARX estimator.  
    5259 
    53 The first three fileds are self explanatory, they identify which data are predicted (field \c rv) and which are in regressor (field \c rgr). 
     60The first three fields are self explanatory, they identify which data are predicted (field \c rv) and which are in regresor (field \c rgr). 
    5461The field \c log_level is a string of options passed to the object. In particular, class \c BM understand only options related to storing results: 
    5562 - logbounds - store also lower and upper bounds on estimates (obtained by calling BM::posterior().qbounds()), 
     
    6673In Bayesian framework, model selection is done via comparison of evidence (marginal likelihood) of the recorded data. See [some theory]. 
    6774 
    68 A trivial exammple how this can be done is presented in file bdmtoolbox/tutorial/userguide/arx_selection_example.m. The code extends the basic A1 object as follows: 
     75A trivial example how this can be done is presented in file bdmtoolbox/tutorial/userguide/arx_selection_example.m. The code extends the basic A1 object as follows: 
    6976\code 
    7077A2=A1; 
     
    7885 - A3 which is the same as A2, but assumes time-variant parameters with forgetting factor 0.95. 
    7986  
    80 Since all estimator were configured to store values of marginal log-likelihood, we can easily compare them by computint total log-likelihood for each of them and converting them to probabilities. Typically, the results should look like: 
     87Since all estimator were configured to store values of marginal log-likelihood, we can easily compare them by computing total log-likelihood for each of them and converting them to probabilities. Typically, the results should look like: 
    8188\code 
    8289Model_probabilities = 
     
    100107\section ug2_bm_composition Composition of estimators 
    101108 
    102 Similarly to pdfs which could be composed via \c mprod, the Bayesian models can be composed togetrer. However, justification of this step is less clear than in the case of epdfs. 
     109Similarly to pdfs which could be composed via \c mprod, the Bayesian models can be composed together. However, justification of this step is less clear than in the case of epdfs. 
    103110 
    104111One possible theoretical base of composition is the Marginalized particle filter, which splits the prior and the posterior in two parts: 
     
    166173\image latex frg_example.png "Typical run of tutorial/userguide/frg_example.m" width=\linewidth 
    167174 
    168 Note: error bars in this case are not directly comparable with those of previous examples. The MPF class implements the qbounds function as minimum and maximum of bounds in the condidered set (even if its weight is extreemly small). Hence, the bounds of the MPF are probably larger than it should be. Nevertheless, they provide great help when designing and tuning algorithms. 
     175Note: error bars in this case are not directly comparable with those of previous examples. The MPF class implements the qbounds function as minimum and maximum of bounds in the considered set (even if its weight is extremely small). Hence, the bounds of the MPF are probably larger than it should be. Nevertheless, they provide great help when designing and tuning algorithms. 
    169176 
    170177\section ug_est_ext Matlab extensions of the Bayesian estimators 
     
    178185In order to create a new extension of an estimator, copy file with class mexLaplaceBM.m and redefine the methods therein. If needed create new classes for pdfs by inheriting from mexEpdf, it the same way as in the mexLaplace.m example class. 
    179186 
    180 Foro list of all estimators, see \ref app_base. 
     187For list of all estimators, see \ref app_base. 
    181188*/